If you've seen the pieces I've been writing on the labour force framework recently, I wantto show you something.
It has to do with the way politicians talk about the unemployment rate.
They often talk about the unemployment rate likeit's a competition, and they sow confusion by doing so.
Wesaw an example last week.
But first, I want to talk about a statistic that politiciansshouldcompete over, because it's farmore meaningful for job seekers.
It shows how long it's takingto find a job inAustralia at the moment, in different areas of the country.
More than 100labour markets
You'll often hear people talking about the labour market as though Australia has a single pool of employed and unemployed people.
Butthe world's more complicated than that.
In fact, theBureau of Statistics divides Australia into 108 labour markets.
The geographical boundary of each one isdesigned to capture the labour supply (where people live) and demand (where people work) of unique markets around the country.
ABS officials consulted experts on labour market geography and analysed the Census of Population and Housing's travel to work data to identify the different areas.
The map below shows where the boundaries are.
I've made a table (see below) that shows the length of time it's been takingan officially unemployed person tofind a job in all 108 markets.
I've shown the data from March 2021, because that's when Australia's economy was recoveringstrongly from last year's lockdowns andthe participation rate was at an all-time high (before the Delta outbreak in June).
I've included March data from previous years so you can see how theycompare across time.
Bear in mind we've been living through extraordinary times in the past 18 months.
In March this year, our international borders were still closed, net overseas migration had turned negative for the first time since 1946, job vacancies were near record highs, and billions of dollars of stimulus were circulating in the economy.
They weren't normal times.
Anyway, you can toggle through the pages by pressing the arrow buttons near the top right-hand corner of the table.
I've put the headline numbers for each state and territory in different colours.
ABS officials say the duration of job search statistic can be used to identify the number of long-term unemployed people in every labour market in the country.
And they collect detailed data from all 108 markets to trackthe fortunes of job seekers who've been looking for work for these lengths of time:
Under three months
Between three and 12 months
Between 12 and 24 months
Over 24 months
Of particular concern are job seekers who haven't found work after a year of looking.
If your duration of job search is 52 weeks (12 months) or more, you're considered long-term unemployed.
ABS officials say there are consequences to being out of work for such long periods, including financial hardship and loss of skills.
The longer someone isunemployed the harder it becomes for them to find employment again.
As you can see below, thelong-term unemployed have been finding it increasingly difficult to find employment over the past decade.
That fits with the next graph, which aggregates every job seeker's experience into a single statistic.
It shows how long it's typically taking officially unemployed people to find a job in Australia.
Notice how the duration of the job search trended strongly downwards after the 1990s recession, butthen started trending back up after the global financial crisis in 2008.
It's become harder for job seekers to find employment in the last 13 years.
Isn'tthatthe type of statisticpoliticiansshould be competing over?
A lower unemployment rate?
Which brings us to the last section.
I mentioned earlier how politiciansoften talk about the unemployment rate likeit's a competitionand how they sowconfusion by doing so.
We saw an example of that last weekfrom our federal Treasurer.
You'll see politicians from all parties doing it, but this is the most recent example.
Note the last point Josh Frydenberg made, about the unemployment rate specifically.
Let's consider two things.
First, the unemployment rate does not tell you what you think it's telling you.
As I've explained inPart 1, andPart 2, andPart 3of this series on the labour force framework,the unemployment rate isnottelling you what percentage of Australians are without work each month.
Source from:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-07/how-long-does-it-take-someone-to-find-a-job-in-your-region/100600420
